Will market prices for calcined coal carbon additives rise?

This week, the market for carbon-enriching agents for calcining coal remained generally stable, with a clear tug-of-war between supply and demand. Cost-side support balanced out weak demand, keeping prices within a narrow range without significant fluctuations. The industry continued to follow the pattern of “west-to-east sales and market concentration among leading players.” Specific details are as follows:

I. Market Overview

1. Price Trends: Quotations for mainstream specifications remained flat with no significant fluctuations. Overall prices were consistent with last week, with no clear momentum for either increases or decreases.

2. Supply and Demand Conditions: On the supply side, operating rates in the main production area of Ningxia remained low. The supply of raw material anthracite (Taixi coal) was tight, providing solid cost support. Manufacturers continued to reduce inventories, and tight spot market conditions supported firm quotations;

On the demand side, downstream steel mills and foundries are resuming operations slowly. Purchasing is primarily driven by essential restocking needs, with transactions consisting mostly of small and scattered orders. Large orders are limited, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails, constraining price increases.

II. Industry Chain Dynamics

1. Upstream: Pithead prices for the core raw material, anthracite (primarily from Ningxia and Shanxi), remain firm. The pace of coal mine resumption is slow, leading to tight supply. As anthracite accounts for 60%-70% of carbon additive production costs, cost-side support remains strong; electricity prices are stable, exerting limited impact on production costs.

2. Midstream: The Ningxia production area accounts for 87.75% of national capacity and remains the core supply region. Leading enterprises maintain stable shipments by leveraging the advantages of long-term contracts and direct supply, while small and medium-sized enterprises are accelerating their exit from the market due to environmental and cost pressures.

3. Downstream: Demand from electric arc furnace steel (accounting for over 65%) and the foundry industry is gradually recovering. Policies supporting short-process steelmaking in electric arc furnaces continue to drive steady growth in demand for calcined coal carbon additives, with demand remaining stable.

III. Market Outlook for Next Week

The coking coal and carbon additive market is expected to remain range-bound next week, with price fluctuations for mainstream specifications limited to ≤50 yuan/ton, maintaining overall stability. Positive factors: Tight supply of raw material anthracite and low manufacturer inventories provide strong cost support; Negative factors: Slow recovery in downstream demand, weak transaction volumes, and persistent market caution. Key areas to monitor include the progress of steel mills resuming operations, anthracite price trends, and changes in manufacturer inventories.